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Follow the big trade failed

Copy the side of the first $1,000+ trade in a market. The lab tracked 1,855 of them, about $4 million: the big money lost 4.9%, and copying it faster did not help.

Markets: Bitcoin price up down · every 15 minutes KXBTC15M · KXATPMATCH KXATPMATCH · KXMLBGAME KXMLBGAME

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The lab's record

Public tape, Aug to Sep 2026: -2.92c a contract whether you copied 0.25 s, 2 s or 10 s later.

Money: Paper
Per contract: -2.92¢
Period: Aug to Sep 2026

Read the write-up

Pass mark

written before the first run

On a member's copy, a strategy cannot run until its pass mark is written down: minimum trades, cents a contract after fee, both halves positive, a cap on one day's share of profit, a loss-rate cap, and a judgement date. The verdict is computed only from fills made after the mark, so it can never be fitted to a result that already exists. The lab's own bar is the default.

The lab tested this shape

public numbers, 2026-10-26

The lab tested this shape. paper: 8 graded ledgers, 13,063 trades, -1.41¢ a contract weighted, 0 passed the bar.

Run	Market	Trades	¢ / contract	Thirds	Verdict
Follow big prints (huge size)	BTC15M	3,172	-0.70	0.23 / -1.86 / -0.47	fail	read
Follow big prints (medium size)	BTC15M	2,949	-2.20	-1.52 / -1.64 / -3.11	fail	read
Follow big prints (small size)	BTC15M	2,931	-0.22	1.06 / -1.52 / -0.13	fail	read
Follow big prints (large size)	BTC15M	983	-0.92	-2.17 / 2.69 / -1.47	fail	read
Follow big prints (small size)	ATPMATCH	852	-3.52	-2.67 / -4.01 / -3.71	fail	read
Follow big prints (huge size)	ATPMATCH	822	-6.05	-5.72 / -3.61 / -7.75	fail	read
Follow big prints (medium size)	ATPMATCH	749	-0.93	-3.68 / -0.18 / 0.48	fail	read
Follow big prints (large size)	ATPMATCH	605	+0.93	3.56 / -3.85 / 2.44	fail	read

Information, not a block. Rows marked real are from the public real-money table; the rest are paper ledgers from the lab's all-time grade. No live-lane settings or maker parameters are shipped.

Your paper result

Fills7

Win rate57%

¢ / contract-11.43

Touched, not filled0

Settled fills7 (4 won) · -80.0¢ net · 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-01
First half vs second half-41.67 on 3 · +11.25 on 4
Best single day's share of profit– (2 days with fills)

Scored only on settled fills, the way the lab's bars are. Export this strategy's orders (CSV)

Backtest

not run yet

Asks the same honest question of Kalshi's free history: at each minute's end inside the rule's window, would this order have rested, and would a real print have gone through its price before it expired? Decisions from one-minute candles, fills from the public trade tape, settlement from the recorded result, the series' maker fee. A best case: no queue position, no latency.

Rule

Declarative: Ping never runs code from a strategy file.

Kind: follow_size
Series: KXBTC15M, KXATPMATCH, KXMLBGAME
Acts: 60 to 86400 s before close
Price range: 1¢ to 99¢
Contracts: 1
Order life: 60 s
Max open: 2
min trade usd: 1000
window seconds: 60

Strategy file (TOML)

id = "follow_size"
name = "Follow the big trade"
series = [
    "KXBTC15M",
    "KXATPMATCH",
    "KXMLBGAME",
]
description = "Copy the side of the first $1,000+ trade in a market. The lab tracked 1,855 of them, about $4 million: the big money lost 4.9%, and copying it faster did not help."
contracts = 1
order_life_seconds = 60
max_open = 2
cooldown_seconds = 120
pack = "pack-2"

[gate]
seconds_before_close_min = 60
seconds_before_close_max = 86400
max_price_cents = 99
min_price_cents = 1
min_contracts_offered = 1

[rule]
kind = "follow_size"

[rule.params]
min_trade_usd = 1000
window_seconds = 60

[record]
status = "failed"
summary = "Public tape, Aug to Sep 2026: -2.92c a contract whether you copied 0.25 s, 2 s or 10 s later."
real_money = false
cents_per_contract = -2.92
period = "Aug to Sep 2026"
link = "https://pondletter.com/kalshi-whale-trades-study/"

Paper orders

Placed (UTC)	Market	Side	Price	Status	Fill	Fee	Result	P&L
11-01 12:27	KXBTC15M-26NOV011233-79250	NO	67¢	open
11-01 12:19	KXBTC15M-26NOV011230-80250	YES	53¢	open
11-01 08:39	KXBTC15M-26NOV010842-80000	YES	53¢	filled	through	0¢	loss	-53.0¢
11-01 08:09	KXBTC15M-26NOV010812-78750	YES	44¢	expired
11-01 03:51	KXBTC15M-26NOV010357-79250	YES	35¢	expired
11-01 03:24	KXBTC15M-26NOV010327-81250	YES	83¢	filled	through	0¢	win	+17.0¢
10-31 22:38	KXBTC15M-26OCT312242-80750	YES	68¢	expired
10-31 22:06	KXBTC15M-26OCT312212-81250	YES	38¢	filled	through	0¢	win	+62.0¢
10-31 20:18	KXBTC15M-26OCT312027-79500	NO	96¢	expired
10-31 20:04	KXBTC15M-26OCT312012-78750	YES	47¢	expired
10-31 19:36	KXBTC15M-26OCT311942-78500	NO	81¢	filled	at price	0¢	win	+19.0¢
10-31 19:14	KXBTC15M-26OCT311927-81250	NO	64¢	filled	at price	0¢	loss	-64.0¢
10-31 10:20	KXBTC15M-26OCT311027-78000	YES	73¢	filled	through	0¢	loss	-73.0¢
10-31 05:02	KXBTC15M-26OCT310512-81250	YES	50¢	expired
10-31 03:45	KXBTC15M-26OCT310357-82000	YES	87¢	expired
10-31 03:17	KXBTC15M-26OCT310327-81750	NO	55¢	expired
10-31 00:47	KXBTC15M-26OCT310057-80250	NO	88¢	filled	through	0¢	win	+12.0¢