← Strategies

The 99c contract paper

Buy contracts priced 97c to 99c in the last minutes: a near-certain cent or two, many times a day. The lab's 'picky' version is on a forward test now.

Markets: Bitcoin price up down · every 15 minutes KXBTC15M

Modify

The lab's record

52,323 contracts graded from the tape. Pays a cent most of the time and loses 97 the rest; the test is whether the rare loss comes often enough to eat the pennies.

Money: Paper
Period: forward test from Oct 2026

Read the write-up

Pass mark

written before the first run

On a member's copy, a strategy cannot run until its pass mark is written down: minimum trades, cents a contract after fee, both halves positive, a cap on one day's share of profit, a loss-rate cap, and a judgement date. The verdict is computed only from fills made after the mark, so it can never be fitted to a result that already exists. The lab's own bar is the default.

The lab tested this shape

public numbers, 2026-10-26

The lab tested this shape. paper: 3 graded ledgers, 5,847 trades, -1.92¢ a contract weighted, 0 passed the bar.

Run	Market	Trades	¢ / contract	Thirds	Verdict
Near certain (extreme favourite)	BTC 15 minute	3,591	-1.94	-1.44 / -2.76 / -1.7	fail	read
Near certain, stable book	BTC 15 minute	1,715	-1.81	-2.45 / -0.92 / -2.04	fail	read
Extreme favourite	BTC15M	541	-2.09	-1.66 / -1.56 / -2.98	fail	read

Information, not a block. Rows marked real are from the public real-money table; the rest are paper ledgers from the lab's all-time grade. No live-lane settings or maker parameters are shipped.

Your paper result

Fills5

Win rate100%

¢ / contract+2.20

Touched, not filled0

Settled fills5 (5 won) · +11.0¢ net · 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-01
First half vs second half+2.50 on 2 · +2.00 on 3
Best single day's share of profit73% (2 days with fills)

Scored only on settled fills, the way the lab's bars are. Export this strategy's orders (CSV)

Backtest

not run yet

Asks the same honest question of Kalshi's free history: at each minute's end inside the rule's window, would this order have rested, and would a real print have gone through its price before it expired? Decisions from one-minute candles, fills from the public trade tape, settlement from the recorded result, the series' maker fee. A best case: no queue position, no latency.

Rule

Declarative: Ping never runs code from a strategy file.

Kind: near_certain
Series: KXBTC15M
Acts: 20 to 180 s before close
Price range: 97¢ to 99¢
Contracts: 1
Order life: 60 s
Max open: 3
min ask cents: 97

Strategy file (TOML)

id = "near_certain"
name = "The 99c contract"
series = [
    "KXBTC15M",
]
description = "Buy contracts priced 97c to 99c in the last minutes: a near-certain cent or two, many times a day. The lab's 'picky' version is on a forward test now."
contracts = 1
order_life_seconds = 60
max_open = 3
cooldown_seconds = 0
pack = "core"

[gate]
seconds_before_close_min = 20
seconds_before_close_max = 180
max_price_cents = 99
min_price_cents = 97
min_contracts_offered = 1

[rule]
kind = "near_certain"

[rule.params]
min_ask_cents = 97

[record]
status = "paper"
summary = "52,323 contracts graded from the tape. Pays a cent most of the time and loses 97 the rest; the test is whether the rare loss comes often enough to eat the pennies."
real_money = false
period = "forward test from Oct 2026"
link = "https://pondletter.com/active-tests/"

Paper orders

Placed (UTC)	Market	Side	Price	Status	Fill	Fee	Result	P&L
11-01 12:30	KXBTC15M-26NOV011231-78250	YES	98¢	open
11-01 12:30	KXBTC15M-26NOV011231-80750	NO	98¢	open
11-01 09:40	KXBTC15M-26NOV010941-78750	YES	98¢	expired
11-01 09:38	KXBTC15M-26NOV010941-80500	YES	97¢	expired
11-01 08:09	KXBTC15M-26NOV010811-81750	YES	99¢	expired
11-01 07:10	KXBTC15M-26NOV010711-79000	NO	97¢	expired
11-01 05:23	KXBTC15M-26NOV010526-82000	YES	97¢	filled	through	0¢	win	+3.0¢
11-01 04:38	KXBTC15M-26NOV010441-80250	NO	98¢	expired
11-01 01:38	KXBTC15M-26NOV010141-80750	YES	99¢	expired
10-31 22:54	KXBTC15M-26OCT312256-79500	NO	99¢	filled	through	0¢	win	+1.0¢
10-31 21:39	KXBTC15M-26OCT312141-82000	YES	97¢	expired
10-31 20:24	KXBTC15M-26OCT312026-78250	YES	99¢	expired
10-31 20:23	KXBTC15M-26OCT312026-78000	NO	98¢	filled	through	0¢	win	+2.0¢
10-31 20:08	KXBTC15M-26OCT312011-82000	NO	97¢	filled	through	0¢	win	+3.0¢
10-31 19:23	KXBTC15M-26OCT311926-78500	YES	98¢	expired
10-31 19:23	KXBTC15M-26OCT311926-80750	YES	97¢	expired
10-31 16:24	KXBTC15M-26OCT311626-78250	NO	99¢	expired
10-31 10:24	KXBTC15M-26OCT311026-81000	NO	97¢	expired
10-31 04:53	KXBTC15M-26OCT310456-81750	NO	98¢	filled	at price	0¢	win	+2.0¢
10-31 00:39	KXBTC15M-26OCT310041-81000	YES	99¢	expired