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Sam's first week retired

Sam's Wednesday rule from the videos: a long shot priced at a few cents that pays about a dollar when it hits. One contract. Here so you can watch why one good Wednesday does not make a good week.

Markets: Bitcoin price up down · every 15 minutes KXBTC15M

Modify

The lab's record

Up $1.18 by Wednesday, -16c for the week. One 88c favourite loss undid eight wins.

Money
Real
P&L
-0.16
Period
one week, Oct 2026
Read the write-up

Pass mark

written before the first run

On a member's copy, a strategy cannot run until its pass mark is written down: minimum trades, cents a contract after fee, both halves positive, a cap on one day's share of profit, a loss-rate cap, and a judgement date. The verdict is computed only from fills made after the mark, so it can never be fitted to a result that already exists. The lab's own bar is the default.

The lab tested this shape

public numbers, 2026-10-26

The lab tested this shape. paper: 1 graded ledger, 4,286 trades, -1.54¢ a contract weighted, 0 passed the bar.

RunMarketTrades¢ / contractThirdsVerdict
LongshotBTC 15 minute4,286-1.54-1.4 / -1.68 / -1.56failread

Information, not a block. Rows marked real are from the public real-money table; the rest are paper ledgers from the lab's all-time grade. No live-lane settings or maker parameters are shipped.

Your paper result

Fills14
Win rate7%
¢ / contract+3.64
Touched, not filled0
  • Settled fills14 (1 won) · +51.0¢ net · 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-01
  • First half vs second half-3.57 on 7 · +10.86 on 7
  • Best single day's share of profit161% (2 days with fills)

Scored only on settled fills, the way the lab's bars are. Export this strategy's orders (CSV)

Backtest

not run yet

Asks the same honest question of Kalshi's free history: at each minute's end inside the rule's window, would this order have rested, and would a real print have gone through its price before it expired? Decisions from one-minute candles, fills from the public trade tape, settlement from the recorded result, the series' maker fee. A best case: no queue position, no latency.

Rule

Declarative: Ping never runs code from a strategy file.
Kind
longshot
Series
KXBTC15M
Acts
60 to 600 s before close
Price range
1¢ to 99¢
Contracts
1
Order life
90 s
Max open
3
max price cents
5
Strategy file (TOML)
id = "sam_week"
name = "Sam's first week"
series = [
    "KXBTC15M",
]
description = "Sam's Wednesday rule from the videos: a long shot priced at a few cents that pays about a dollar when it hits. One contract. Here so you can watch why one good Wednesday does not make a good week."
contracts = 1
order_life_seconds = 90
max_open = 3
cooldown_seconds = 0
pack = "core"

[gate]
seconds_before_close_min = 60
seconds_before_close_max = 600
max_price_cents = 99
min_price_cents = 1
min_contracts_offered = 1

[rule]
kind = "longshot"

[rule.params]
max_price_cents = 5

[record]
status = "retired"
summary = "Up $1.18 by Wednesday, -16c for the week. One 88c favourite loss undid eight wins."
real_money = true
pnl_usd = -0.16
period = "one week, Oct 2026"
link = "https://pondletter.com/kalshi-for-beginners/"

Paper orders

Placed (UTC)MarketSidePriceStatusFillFeeResultP&L
11-01 12:25 KXBTC15M-26NOV011234-81250 YES 5¢ open
11-01 12:25 KXBTC15M-26NOV011233-80250 NO 6¢ open
11-01 10:46 KXBTC15M-26NOV011055-81250 YES 3¢ filled at price 0¢ loss -3.0¢
11-01 10:01 KXBTC15M-26NOV011010-80250 YES 2¢ filled at price 0¢ loss -2.0¢
11-01 07:47 KXBTC15M-26NOV010755-78500 NO 2¢ filled through 0¢ loss -2.0¢
11-01 07:22 KXBTC15M-26NOV010725-78750 YES 6¢ expired
11-01 06:34 KXBTC15M-26NOV010640-80250 YES 5¢ expired
11-01 05:34 KXBTC15M-26NOV010540-81250 NO 3¢ filled at price 0¢ loss -3.0¢
11-01 05:19 KXBTC15M-26NOV010525-78500 YES 3¢ filled through 0¢ loss -3.0¢
11-01 02:07 KXBTC15M-26NOV010210-78750 YES 4¢ expired
11-01 02:00 KXBTC15M-26NOV010210-81250 NO 4¢ expired
11-01 01:53 KXBTC15M-26NOV010155-79000 YES 4¢ expired
11-01 01:22 KXBTC15M-26NOV010125-81750 YES 5¢ filled through 0¢ win +95.0¢
11-01 00:38 KXBTC15M-26NOV010040-78750 NO 4¢ expired
10-31 23:31 KXBTC15M-26OCT312340-81000 YES 2¢ expired
10-31 21:31 KXBTC15M-26OCT312140-81500 YES 6¢ expired
10-31 20:01 KXBTC15M-26OCT312010-78750 YES 6¢ filled at price 0¢ loss -6.0¢
10-31 19:33 KXBTC15M-26OCT311940-80750 YES 2¢ filled at price 0¢ loss -2.0¢
10-31 16:02 KXBTC15M-26OCT311610-79750 YES 4¢ expired
10-31 14:17 KXBTC15M-26OCT311425-79250 NO 5¢ expired
10-31 13:51 KXBTC15M-26OCT311355-80500 NO 6¢ filled through 0¢ loss -6.0¢
10-31 08:53 KXBTC15M-26OCT310855-79000 YES 6¢ filled through 0¢ loss -6.0¢
10-31 06:33 KXBTC15M-26OCT310640-79750 YES 3¢ filled through 0¢ loss -3.0¢
10-31 06:33 KXBTC15M-26OCT310640-79000 NO 5¢ expired
10-31 05:31 KXBTC15M-26OCT310540-80500 YES 2¢ filled at price 0¢ loss -2.0¢
10-31 04:49 KXBTC15M-26OCT310455-82000 NO 3¢ expired
10-31 04:47 KXBTC15M-26OCT310455-81000 NO 6¢ expired
10-31 04:01 KXBTC15M-26OCT310410-78000 YES 5¢ expired
10-31 03:19 KXBTC15M-26OCT310325-80000 NO 2¢ expired
10-31 03:04 KXBTC15M-26OCT310310-78500 YES 2¢ filled at price 0¢ loss -2.0¢
10-31 02:51 KXBTC15M-26OCT310255-78750 YES 4¢ filled through 0¢ loss -4.0¢
10-31 01:30 KXBTC15M-26OCT310140-80750 YES 3¢ expired