Kalshi strategies: our real-money record, and what's live now
Every Kalshi strategy we have traded with real money, what is live now, and the 38 we tested on paper first.
Live now: real money
Our bot is trading the last minute rule on Kalshi with real money, one contract at a time, with its stops written down before the first trade. 4 real trades so far: too few to judge yet. The verdict comes at 60 real trades, and pass or fail, it goes on this page.
15 of our strategies have traded real money on Kalshi: crypto, oil, natural gas, weather and esports markets. 5 finished ahead. The best made $51.27, then failed the test written down before it started. One more is trading real money right now. Below is every real-money result, then the 38 strategies we tested on paper first. We have not found the one that lasts yet, and we are still testing.
With real money
Every strategy that has traded real money, best to worst: 15 strategies, 6,849 real trades, −$76.10 in total, after fees. Every one of these trades is sealed on the proof page.
| Strategy | Market | Trades | Result | Per contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto favourite maker, with the filter | 15 minute crypto | 1,459 | +$51.27 | +2.07¢ |
| Oil favourite maker | 15 minute oil | 158 | +$1.30 | +0.86¢ |
| Multi-asset favourite | 15 minute crypto | 96 | +$0.73 | +0.77¢ |
| Esports pre-match book | League of Legends | 7 | +$0.41 | +5.86¢ |
| Esports match clock | esports | 10 | +$0.30 | +3.00¢ |
| XRP two-sided maker | 15 minute crypto | 199 | −$1.20 | −0.64¢ |
| NEAR maker | 15 minute crypto | 28 | −$2.43 | −9.35¢ |
| Weather market maker | daily high temperature | 577 | −$2.51 | −0.45¢ |
| Resting offers | 15 minute crypto | 92 | −$3.75 | −4.17¢ |
| Natural gas favourite | 15 minute natural gas | 181 | −$4.27 | −2.54¢ |
| Two-sided book, volatility model | 15 minute crypto | 124 | −$6.04 | −5.25¢ |
| Pair completion | 15 minute crypto | 480 | −$7.28 | −1.66¢ |
| Crypto favourite maker, book A | 15 minute markets | 3,230 | −$16.70 | −0.26¢ |
| Liquidity rebate quoter | 15 minute crypto | 100 | −$35.46 | −1.85¢ |
| The first taker bots | crypto, before the lab | 108 | −$50.47 | −0.78¢ |
7 tests running right now
One now uses real money, from 14 October: 4 real trades so far. On paper, the last minute retest has its 60 trades (73 so far) and waits for its 30 October verdict, and a viewer's 97 to 98¢ idea is 35 trades in. Two trade Kalshi perps on paper, and a viewer’s stop-loss idea starts its forward test on 16 October. Members watch them all update every night, including the ones that fail.
Training camp: the 38 paper tests are free
Before real money, every strategy trains on paper. All 38 paper tests with trade counts, the result and the per trade number, including the ones that looked great in training and lost in the real ring. Enter your email and this page unlocks. You also get the Sunday results by email. No spam, one click to leave.
This page is the whole record in one place. Nothing here is advice, and none of it tells you what to buy. It shows what was tried, how many trades each one got, and what happened.