Studies
Picking winners after the fact: members appendix
All nine coins, the exact rule and the stricter recheck.
Studies
One question, answered with data. Each study takes a claim about Kalshi and tests it against the lab's trade record.
Studies
We ran the same Kalshi rule on paper and with real money. The misses were the winners
69 real orders against their paper twins: about half the paper number never arrived, and the gap was not the price.
Studies
Paper vs real money: members appendix
All 53 decisions, trade by trade.
Studies
The four best coins made 5.9 cents in week one. Here is what a fresh test showed
We picked the best 4 of 9 coins, then tested them on trades nobody had seen.
Studies
Kalshi's 7% APY on perps: the real rule, the math, and the trap we fell into
Kalshi now pays up to 7% a year on perpetual futures positions. The rule is one line of math most people will get wrong. Here it is, with the real money position we opened to test it.
Studies
Our live Kalshi bot reacts in under a tenth of a second. It still missed
We replayed 5,742 moments in 960 Kalshi Bitcoin markets: how often offers are still there, and why slow bots get the losing trades.
Studies
Kalshi whale trades: members appendix
Every table behind the whale study: by market, by size, speed, the Bitcoin lead-lag test, and the bug.
Studies
Kalshi bot speed: members appendix
The live last-minute rule exactly as it runs: settings, engine timings, stops, verdict bar and every real fill.
Studies
We tracked $4 million of Kalshi whale trades. The big money lost
1,855 Kalshi trades of $1,000 or more lost 4.9%. Copying them faster didn't help, because there was no move to catch. Plus our own bug.
Prompts
Kalshi perps: build a liquidation and funding dashboard with one prompt
See your liquidation price, funding cost and break-even move before you click Up or Down. Free public data, no API key.
Studies
850 Kalshi bots, graded: members appendix
All 22 strategies that made money in every third, the luck check, the 4 survivors now, and every real-money strategy.
Studies
99¢ Kalshi contracts: members appendix
Every distance bucket, every coin, the time left that matters, and the two rules frozen for the forward test.