One question, answered with data. Each study takes a claim about Kalshi and tests it against the lab's trade record.
Studies
A live Kalshi maker lane run in pre-registered blocks: three at one lot were positive, the two lot block was not. Then a grade of every series on the exchange, from the public tape, for where the same edge has room.
Studies
The tests behind the essay: one-sided flow that dies when lagged ten seconds, a quiet-book effect whose sign flips by strategy, and 2,460 fills showing that quoting deeper and waiting longer both make it worse.
Studies
Our paper lanes show 1.78 cents a fill across 13,024 fills at t=4.44. Every one of them has lost money live. Fees were three and a half times the edge as a taker; as a maker the fees are exactly zero and the lanes are negative anyway.
Studies
Every fill, the pair completion breakdown by market, the full per-coin paper record, the implied-vol model that turned out to sort nothing, and the stop written before the first order.
Studies
A two-sided maker with 11,329 paper fills at +1.87c and an interval entirely above zero went live and lost 4.1c a contract in thirteen hours. The pair completed 31 times and one leg went naked 44 times.
Studies
Every table behind the depth study: by family, by price band, by time to expiry, with sample sizes on every cell, the method, and the two things that went wrong measuring it.
Studies
Crypto books multiply twenty fold into the final minute; commodity books do the reverse. The market this lab trades most is the thinnest on the exchange, and books lock at the extremes and never in the middle. From 8.9 million snapshots.
Studies
Kalshi is splitting its exchange into shards. Crypto moved on 24 August and our bot spent nine hours getting 'market not found' for markets that were open and quoting. What changed, why the error points the wrong way, and whether it moved the spread.
Studies
Seven strategies, two venues, 504 settled Kalshi markets and 660 on Polymarket. Ensemble divergence loses at every threshold and loses worse the more confident the models are. The one idea that looked real died in forward testing.
Studies
Kalshi's esports GAME ticker settles on the whole match, not the game. Winning map one wins the match 82% of the time, the two contracts trade at parity, and a live game clock is worth far more on one than the other.
Studies
One market making bot, run simultaneously on paper and with real dollars on Kalshi. The gap between the two columns is the true cost of simulation, printed weekly.
Studies
Makers trade free on 13,003 Kalshi series and pay a quarter of the taker rate on 130 of them. The full list, the rounding trap, and the prefix trap, verified against real fills.