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Chase the jump failed

When Bitcoin jumps, buy the side the jump favours before the Kalshi price catches up. The lab measured Kalshi repricing within about a quarter of a second.

Markets: Bitcoin price up down · every 15 minutes KXBTC15M

Modify

The lab's record

Kalshi already moved about 4.3c within 0.25 s of the jump. Chasing it paid the new price and the fee.

Money
Real
Per contract
-2.10¢
Period
Jul to Sep 2026
Read the write-up

Pass mark

written before the first run

On a member's copy, a strategy cannot run until its pass mark is written down: minimum trades, cents a contract after fee, both halves positive, a cap on one day's share of profit, a loss-rate cap, and a judgement date. The verdict is computed only from fills made after the mark, so it can never be fitted to a result that already exists. The lab's own bar is the default.

The lab tested this shape

public numbers, 2026-10-26

The lab tested this shape. paper: 1 graded ledger, 1,387 trades, +3.89¢ a contract weighted, 0 passed the bar.

RunMarketTrades¢ / contractThirdsVerdict
Jump (momentum)BTC15M1,387+3.891.3 / 1.02 / 5.53failread

Information, not a block. Rows marked real are from the public real-money table; the rest are paper ledgers from the lab's all-time grade. No live-lane settings or maker parameters are shipped.

Your paper result

Fills15
Win rate40%
¢ / contract-8.93
Touched, not filled0
  • Settled fills15 (6 won) · -134.0¢ net · 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-01
  • First half vs second half+17.86 on 7 · -32.38 on 8
  • Best single day's share of profit– (2 days with fills)

Scored only on settled fills, the way the lab's bars are. Export this strategy's orders (CSV)

Backtest

not run yet

Asks the same honest question of Kalshi's free history: at each minute's end inside the rule's window, would this order have rested, and would a real print have gone through its price before it expired? Decisions from one-minute candles, fills from the public trade tape, settlement from the recorded result, the series' maker fee. A best case: no queue position, no latency.

Rule

Declarative: Ping never runs code from a strategy file.
Kind
momentum
Series
KXBTC15M
Acts
30 to 600 s before close
Price range
1¢ to 85¢
Contracts
1
Order life
45 s
Max open
2
jump cents
8
window seconds
15
Strategy file (TOML)
id = "jump"
name = "Chase the jump"
series = [
    "KXBTC15M",
]
description = "When Bitcoin jumps, buy the side the jump favours before the Kalshi price catches up. The lab measured Kalshi repricing within about a quarter of a second."
contracts = 1
order_life_seconds = 45
max_open = 2
cooldown_seconds = 0
pack = "core"

[gate]
seconds_before_close_min = 30
seconds_before_close_max = 600
max_price_cents = 85
min_price_cents = 1
min_contracts_offered = 1

[rule]
kind = "momentum"

[rule.params]
jump_cents = 8
window_seconds = 15

[record]
status = "failed"
summary = "Kalshi already moved about 4.3c within 0.25 s of the jump. Chasing it paid the new price and the fee."
real_money = true
cents_per_contract = -2.1
period = "Jul to Sep 2026"
link = "https://pondletter.com/kalshi-strategies/"

Paper orders

Placed (UTC)MarketSidePriceStatusFillFeeResultP&L
11-01 12:28 KXBTC15M-26NOV011235-81250 NO 55¢ open
11-01 12:26 KXBTC15M-26NOV011235-78000 NO 61¢ open
11-01 11:01 KXBTC15M-26NOV011110-79750 YES 46¢ filled through 0¢ loss -46.0¢
11-01 11:01 KXBTC15M-26NOV011110-78000 YES 70¢ expired
11-01 10:23 KXBTC15M-26NOV011025-81500 YES 32¢ filled through 0¢ loss -32.0¢
11-01 07:46 KXBTC15M-26NOV010755-78500 YES 77¢ expired
11-01 06:50 KXBTC15M-26NOV010655-81000 NO 60¢ filled through 0¢ loss -60.0¢
11-01 05:15 KXBTC15M-26NOV010525-81000 NO 72¢ expired
11-01 03:50 KXBTC15M-26NOV010355-80750 NO 68¢ expired
11-01 02:54 KXBTC15M-26NOV010255-79000 NO 51¢ filled at price 0¢ loss -51.0¢
11-01 01:53 KXBTC15M-26NOV010155-80250 NO 33¢ filled at price 0¢ loss -33.0¢
10-31 22:48 KXBTC15M-26OCT312255-80000 YES 34¢ expired
10-31 21:18 KXBTC15M-26OCT312125-81000 YES 35¢ expired
10-31 20:01 KXBTC15M-26OCT312010-81500 YES 81¢ filled through 0¢ win +19.0¢
10-31 19:19 KXBTC15M-26OCT311925-80250 YES 82¢ filled through 0¢ win +18.0¢
10-31 16:32 KXBTC15M-26OCT311640-79000 YES 74¢ filled through 0¢ loss -74.0¢
10-31 15:33 KXBTC15M-26OCT311540-78000 YES 45¢ filled at price 0¢ win +55.0¢
10-31 14:02 KXBTC15M-26OCT311410-80000 YES 33¢ expired
10-31 11:53 KXBTC15M-26OCT311155-79500 YES 34¢ filled through 0¢ loss -34.0¢
10-31 11:52 KXBTC15M-26OCT311155-78000 YES 35¢ filled through 0¢ win +65.0¢
10-31 06:45 KXBTC15M-26OCT310655-80500 NO 41¢ filled through 0¢ win +59.0¢
10-31 05:19 KXBTC15M-26OCT310525-81750 YES 33¢ filled at price 0¢ loss -33.0¢
10-31 04:32 KXBTC15M-26OCT310440-82000 YES 39¢ filled through 0¢ win +61.0¢
10-31 03:53 KXBTC15M-26OCT310355-79750 YES 38¢ expired
10-31 03:04 KXBTC15M-26OCT310310-79500 YES 48¢ filled through 0¢ loss -48.0¢