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The long shot failed

Rest a bid on whichever side is priced 5 cents or less. Pays about a dollar when it hits, and the lab's finding is that it does not hit often enough. Shipped so you can watch that for yourself instead of taking our word.

Markets: Bitcoin price up down · every 15 minutes KXBTC15M

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The lab's record

Bought the long shot 38,565 times on paper across twelve 15-minute crypto markets, paying the ask: 2.8 cents a trade short, on every one of the twelve. This copy rests a maker bid instead of paying the ask, the one change the study said might matter. Expect long runs of misses between hits.

Money
Paper
Fills
38565
Per contract
-2.80¢
Period
study, Oct 2026
Read the write-up

Pass mark

written before the first run

On a member's copy, a strategy cannot run until its pass mark is written down: minimum trades, cents a contract after fee, both halves positive, a cap on one day's share of profit, a loss-rate cap, and a judgement date. The verdict is computed only from fills made after the mark, so it can never be fitted to a result that already exists. The lab's own bar is the default.

The lab tested this shape

public numbers, 2026-10-26

The lab tested this shape. paper: 1 graded ledger, 4,286 trades, -1.54¢ a contract weighted, 0 passed the bar.

RunMarketTrades¢ / contractThirdsVerdict
LongshotBTC 15 minute4,286-1.54-1.4 / -1.68 / -1.56failread

Information, not a block. Rows marked real are from the public real-money table; the rest are paper ledgers from the lab's all-time grade. No live-lane settings or maker parameters are shipped.

Your paper result

Fills15
Win rate7%
¢ / contract+2.80
Touched, not filled0
  • Settled fills15 (1 won) · +42.0¢ net · 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-01
  • First half vs second half-4.00 on 7 · +8.75 on 8
  • Best single day's share of profit117% (2 days with fills)

Scored only on settled fills, the way the lab's bars are. Export this strategy's orders (CSV)

Backtest

not run yet

Asks the same honest question of Kalshi's free history: at each minute's end inside the rule's window, would this order have rested, and would a real print have gone through its price before it expired? Decisions from one-minute candles, fills from the public trade tape, settlement from the recorded result, the series' maker fee. A best case: no queue position, no latency.

Rule

Declarative: Ping never runs code from a strategy file.
Kind
longshot
Series
KXBTC15M
Acts
60 to 840 s before close
Price range
1¢ to 5¢
Contracts
1
Order life
60 s
Max open
2
max price cents
5
Strategy file (TOML)
id = "longshot"
name = "The long shot"
series = [
    "KXBTC15M",
]
description = "Rest a bid on whichever side is priced 5 cents or less. Pays about a dollar when it hits, and the lab's finding is that it does not hit often enough. Shipped so you can watch that for yourself instead of taking our word."
contracts = 1
order_life_seconds = 60
max_open = 2
cooldown_seconds = 0
pack = "core"

[gate]
seconds_before_close_min = 60
seconds_before_close_max = 840
max_price_cents = 5
min_price_cents = 1
min_contracts_offered = 1

[rule]
kind = "longshot"

[rule.params]
max_price_cents = 5

[record]
status = "failed"
summary = "Bought the long shot 38,565 times on paper across twelve 15-minute crypto markets, paying the ask: 2.8 cents a trade short, on every one of the twelve. This copy rests a maker bid instead of paying the ask, the one change the study said might matter. Expect long runs of misses between hits."
real_money = false
fills = 38565
cents_per_contract = -2.8
period = "study, Oct 2026"
link = "https://pondletter.com/kalshi-longshot-strategy-ai-prompt/"

Paper orders

Placed (UTC)MarketSidePriceStatusFillFeeResultP&L
11-01 12:33 KXBTC15M-26NOV011236-80250 NO 3¢ open
11-01 12:29 KXBTC15M-26NOV011238-81750 YES 5¢ open
11-01 08:47 KXBTC15M-26NOV010856-80000 YES 4¢ expired
11-01 06:24 KXBTC15M-26NOV010626-79500 YES 3¢ filled through 0¢ loss -3.0¢
11-01 04:33 KXBTC15M-26NOV010441-78500 NO 3¢ expired
11-01 03:19 KXBTC15M-26NOV010326-81250 YES 4¢ filled at price 0¢ loss -4.0¢
10-31 23:47 KXBTC15M-26OCT312356-80250 YES 5¢ filled at price 0¢ win +95.0¢
10-31 23:06 KXBTC15M-26OCT312311-79500 NO 5¢ expired
10-31 22:05 KXBTC15M-26OCT312211-79500 NO 5¢ expired
10-31 21:53 KXBTC15M-26OCT312156-81500 YES 3¢ filled at price 0¢ loss -3.0¢
10-31 20:16 KXBTC15M-26OCT312026-79500 NO 2¢ expired
10-31 20:01 KXBTC15M-26OCT312011-80250 YES 5¢ expired
10-31 18:18 KXBTC15M-26OCT311826-79750 YES 4¢ filled through 0¢ loss -4.0¢
10-31 18:15 KXBTC15M-26OCT311826-79750 YES 4¢ expired
10-31 18:04 KXBTC15M-26OCT311811-79750 NO 4¢ filled at price 0¢ loss -4.0¢
10-31 16:03 KXBTC15M-26OCT311611-80500 YES 2¢ expired
10-31 14:38 KXBTC15M-26OCT311441-82000 YES 5¢ filled through 0¢ loss -5.0¢
10-31 11:23 KXBTC15M-26OCT311126-80000 NO 2¢ filled through 0¢ loss -2.0¢
10-31 10:27 KXBTC15M-26OCT311041-81250 YES 5¢ filled through 0¢ loss -5.0¢
10-31 09:46 KXBTC15M-26OCT310956-78250 NO 5¢ filled through 0¢ loss -5.0¢
10-31 09:13 KXBTC15M-26OCT310926-78250 NO 2¢ filled through 0¢ loss -2.0¢
10-31 05:53 KXBTC15M-26OCT310556-79750 NO 5¢ filled through 0¢ loss -5.0¢
10-31 05:15 KXBTC15M-26OCT310526-81750 YES 5¢ filled through 0¢ loss -5.0¢
10-31 03:30 KXBTC15M-26OCT310341-81000 NO 4¢ filled through 0¢ loss -4.0¢
10-31 01:02 KXBTC15M-26OCT310111-81250 YES 3¢ expired
10-31 00:52 KXBTC15M-26OCT310056-80250 YES 2¢ filled through 0¢ loss -2.0¢