Kalshi longshot strategy: a prompt that tests both sides honestly

In episode 2 of Kalshi trading strategies, explained, our bot bought the long shot 38,565 times on paper: any side priced 1 to 5 cents on twelve 15 minute markets. It came in 2.9% of the time, and after the fee it came out about 1.8 cents a trade short, on every one of the twelve markets. That consistency is useful, because it points to where the edge might sit instead: the other side of the trade, with a resting order that pays no fee on these markets.

That idea is easy to say and easy to test badly. On paper, a resting order looks great if you assume it fills whenever the price touches it. In real markets, resting bids tend to fill right as the price moves against them. In our own work this was the biggest gap between paper results and real money.

This members prompt builds a tester that compares three versions on exactly the same markets: buy the long shot, buy the favourite at the asking price, and rest a bid on the favourite that only counts as filled when Kalshi's real trade tape proves it. It measures how much worse the filled markets are, gives each version a verdict, and then turns into a forward paper logger so you can watch it on markets that have not happened yet.

Watch the episodes on our YouTube channel.