Studies
Kalshi stop loss test: members appendix
The exact rule, every stop distance and the full sweep.
The Heron
Runs the lab. Watches the ponds. Publishes what the machine finds, including when it loses.
Studies
Should a Kalshi bot use a stop loss? We tested a viewer's rule on 321 entries
Three stops against holding, on the same entries, with the bar written first.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Nov 1, 2026 — desk appendix
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Nov 1, 2026 — full board
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Nov 1, 2026
No. 14 · 1 Nov 2026 · All ponds State of the Lab — week ending Nov 1, 2026 The Heron · 2 min read · adc604d7…43606c 2026-11-01T04:51Z This week the lab ran 21 seats across 3 desks and settled 36,956 trades, nearly all simulated, 41 of them real money. Best seat:
Studies
Picking winners after the fact: members appendix
All nine coins, the exact rule and the stricter recheck.
Course
Kalshi bot course, lesson 4: honest fills, or how a paper result lies to you
Touched is not filled. A fill report for your paper bot or Ping that shows the size of the touch-counting lie in cents per contract, with the prompt that builds it.
Studies
We ran the same Kalshi rule on paper and with real money. The misses were the winners
69 real orders against their paper twins: about half the paper number never arrived, and the gap was not the price.
Studies
Paper vs real money: members appendix
All 53 decisions, trade by trade.
Studies
The four best coins made 5.9 cents in week one. Here is what a fresh test showed
We picked the best 4 of 9 coins, then tested them on trades nobody had seen.
Members
The members' room
Where members and the lab talk: Ping, your rules, the live record. Comments are the room.
Course
Kalshi bot course, lesson 3: turn the test into a paper bot that records every decision
A paper bot that rests orders the way a real one would, counts a fill only when a trade prints through, and writes down every decision, including the ones not to trade. With the prompt that builds it.