The grade sheet
Every liquid Kalshi series graded on the public tape, updated weekly. Free with signup.
Updated 2026-09-30. 35 series graded, 17 with an edge above friction on the public tape. Recomputed every Saturday night from Kalshi's free trade history with the same grader that is free on GitHub.
One question, asked of every liquid series the same way: in the last 24 hours before close, when the favourite traded at 74 to 93 cents and the taker was on the other side, what did the maker who bought the favourite earn per contract at settlement? One number per market, then the mean across markets, a t-statistic, how many close dates were positive, and the two halves of the period scored separately. The mirror column is the taker who bought the favourite, after the taker fee.
The top five this week. The rest of the sheet is free with signup.
| series | markets graded | with cell | maker ¢/ct | t | close dates positive | halves | mirror ¢/ct | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KXWORLDNEWSMENTION | 150 | 137 | +10.60¢ | 5.5 | 11/11 | +13.73 / +7.52 | +4.69¢ | edge on the tape |
KXWTAMATCH | 150 | 150 | +9.52¢ | 6.7 | 7/8 | +10.77 / +8.27 | -1.50¢ | edge on the tape |
KXATPMATCH | 150 | 148 | +9.42¢ | 6.2 | 7/8 | +6.10 / +12.75 | +6.93¢ | edge on the tape |
KXCS2GAME | 150 | 147 | +9.33¢ | 5.5 | 3/4 | +7.78 / +10.87 | -1.98¢ | edge on the tape |
KXBTC15M | 664 | 664 | +8.28¢ | 11.6 | 8/8 | +7.95 / +8.60 | +6.01¢ | edge on the tape |