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Maker ladder (JZL style) retired

Rest bids below the market and let other people come to you, on series where makers pay no fee. The only family in the lab's record that finished ahead with real money, before it failed its own test at size.

Markets: Bitcoin price up down · every 15 minutes KXBTC15M

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The lab's record

+$51.27 over 1,459 real fills at 1 to 2 lots. Failed its pre-registered bar when sized up to 4 lots; retired.

Money: Real
Fills: 1459
P&L: +51.27
Period: Aug to Sep 2026

Read the write-up

Pass mark

written before the first run

On a member's copy, a strategy cannot run until its pass mark is written down: minimum trades, cents a contract after fee, both halves positive, a cap on one day's share of profit, a loss-rate cap, and a judgement date. The verdict is computed only from fills made after the mark, so it can never be fitted to a result that already exists. The lab's own bar is the default.

The lab tested this shape

public numbers, 2026-10-26

The lab tested this shape. real money: 7 runs, 5,581 trades, -17.23 dollars in total; paper: 22 graded ledgers, 54,004 trades, +1.65¢ a contract weighted, 1 passed the bar.

Run	Market	Trades	¢ / contract	Thirds	Verdict
Crypto favourite maker, book A real	15 minute markets	3,230	-0.26		fail	read
Crypto favourite maker, with the filter real	15 minute crypto	1,459	+2.07		fail	read
Pair completion real	15 minute crypto	480	-1.66		fail	read
Two-sided book, volatility model real	15 minute crypto	124	-5.25		fail	read
Liquidity rebate quoter real	15 minute crypto	100	-1.85		fail	read
Multi-asset favourite real	15 minute crypto	96	+0.77		fail	read
Resting offers real	15 minute crypto	92	-4.17		fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	13,030	+1.78	1.71 / 2.09 / 1.56	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	6,064	+1.47	1.85 / 0.95 / 1.49	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	5,692	+1.71	1.9 / 0.8 / 2.26	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	5,001	+2.02	1.96 / 2.7 / 1.33	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	3,529	+1.20	0.32 / 2.25 / 1.0	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	3,149	+3.08	3.21 / 3.6 / 2.6	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	2,896	+2.63	1.48 / 3.61 / 2.53	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	2,225	+2.31	2.34 / 1.17 / 3.34	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	1,930	+0.82	1.29 / -0.12 / 1.46	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	1,906	+2.37	2.31 / 0.73 / 3.79	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	1,714	+1.41	2.36 / 1.4 / -0.19	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	1,505	-0.24	-0.42 / -0.17 / -0.12	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	1,385	+2.03	3.67 / -0.19 / 5.74	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	1,307	-0.64	1.32 / -2.31 / 1.02	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	878	-0.56	-0.03 / -0.29 / -3.71	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	404	+0.35	1.0 / 1.07 / -0.84	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	315	+2.21	2.49 / -1.87 / 4.63	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	292	-0.70	-2.38 / 8.98 / -2.07	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	257	-3.17	-4.07 / -4.48 / 10.29	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	233	+5.32	2.3 / 12.21 / 1.58	pass	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	165	-5.69	-11.83 / 11.71 / -11.46	fail	read
Maker (paper, lab book)	15 minute crypto	127	+3.65	6.18 / 4.79 / 1.97	fail	read

Information, not a block. Rows marked real are from the public real-money table; the rest are paper ledgers from the lab's all-time grade. No live-lane settings or maker parameters are shipped.

Your paper result

Fills17

Win rate65%

¢ / contract-1.18

Touched, not filled0

Settled fills17 (11 won) · -20.0¢ net · 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-01
First half vs second half-8.38 on 8 · +5.22 on 9
Best single day's share of profit– (2 days with fills)

Scored only on settled fills, the way the lab's bars are. Export this strategy's orders (CSV)

Backtest

not run yet

Asks the same honest question of Kalshi's free history: at each minute's end inside the rule's window, would this order have rested, and would a real print have gone through its price before it expired? Decisions from one-minute candles, fills from the public trade tape, settlement from the recorded result, the series' maker fee. A best case: no queue position, no latency.

Rule

Declarative: Ping never runs code from a strategy file.

Kind: maker_ladder
Series: KXBTC15M
Acts: 90 to 780 s before close
Price range: 1¢ to 99¢
Contracts: 1
Order life: 120 s
Max open: 4
band min: 55
band max: 92

Strategy file (TOML)

id = "maker_ladder"
name = "Maker ladder (JZL style)"
series = [
    "KXBTC15M",
]
description = "Rest bids below the market and let other people come to you, on series where makers pay no fee. The only family in the lab's record that finished ahead with real money, before it failed its own test at size."
contracts = 1
order_life_seconds = 120
max_open = 4
cooldown_seconds = 0
pack = "pack-2"

[gate]
seconds_before_close_min = 90
seconds_before_close_max = 780
max_price_cents = 99
min_price_cents = 1
min_contracts_offered = 1

[rule]
kind = "maker_ladder"

[rule.params]
band_min = 55
band_max = 92

[record]
status = "retired"
summary = "+$51.27 over 1,459 real fills at 1 to 2 lots. Failed its pre-registered bar when sized up to 4 lots; retired."
real_money = true
fills = 1459
pnl_usd = 51.27
period = "Aug to Sep 2026"
link = "https://pondletter.com/kalshi-strategies/"

Paper orders

Placed (UTC)	Market	Side	Price	Status	Fill	Fee	Result	P&L
11-01 12:20	KXBTC15M-26NOV011232-79250	YES	81¢	open
11-01 12:16	KXBTC15M-26NOV011229-79250	YES	79¢	open
11-01 11:53	KXBTC15M-26NOV011156-80750	YES	90¢	expired
11-01 10:16	KXBTC15M-26NOV011026-78250	NO	82¢	filled	through	0¢	win	+18.0¢
11-01 09:58	KXBTC15M-26NOV011011-81000	YES	93¢	expired
11-01 09:54	KXBTC15M-26NOV010956-79500	NO	77¢	filled	through	0¢	win	+23.0¢
11-01 09:24	KXBTC15M-26NOV010926-80250	NO	63¢	expired
11-01 09:01	KXBTC15M-26NOV010911-80750	NO	90¢	filled	through	0¢	win	+10.0¢
11-01 08:51	KXBTC15M-26NOV010856-78500	NO	37¢	filled	through	0¢	loss	-37.0¢
11-01 08:32	KXBTC15M-26NOV010841-79000	YES	48¢	expired
11-01 08:02	KXBTC15M-26NOV010811-81500	YES	33¢	expired
11-01 07:58	KXBTC15M-26NOV010811-80500	NO	37¢	filled	at price	0¢	loss	-37.0¢
11-01 07:01	KXBTC15M-26NOV010711-78250	YES	95¢	filled	at price	0¢	win	+5.0¢
11-01 06:47	KXBTC15M-26NOV010656-79000	NO	56¢	filled	through	0¢	win	+44.0¢
11-01 00:50	KXBTC15M-26NOV010056-80750	YES	87¢	expired
10-31 22:59	KXBTC15M-26OCT312311-81000	YES	30¢	filled	through	0¢	loss	-30.0¢
10-31 21:05	KXBTC15M-26OCT312111-81000	YES	49¢	filled	at price	0¢	win	+51.0¢
10-31 20:37	KXBTC15M-26OCT312041-78250	YES	94¢	expired
10-31 20:09	KXBTC15M-26OCT312011-79250	YES	85¢	expired
10-31 18:20	KXBTC15M-26OCT311826-79250	YES	64¢	filled	at price	0¢	win	+36.0¢
10-31 17:15	KXBTC15M-26OCT311726-80750	YES	59¢	filled	through	0¢	loss	-59.0¢
10-31 16:49	KXBTC15M-26OCT311656-81750	YES	46¢	expired
10-31 16:48	KXBTC15M-26OCT311656-81500	NO	49¢	expired
10-31 15:21	KXBTC15M-26OCT311526-78500	YES	82¢	expired
10-31 15:07	KXBTC15M-26OCT311511-81250	NO	86¢	filled	through	0¢	win	+14.0¢
10-31 15:03	KXBTC15M-26OCT311511-81000	NO	54¢	filled	at price	0¢	win	+46.0¢
10-31 13:51	KXBTC15M-26OCT311356-81750	YES	66¢	filled	through	0¢	win	+34.0¢
10-31 13:17	KXBTC15M-26OCT311326-81000	NO	83¢	filled	at price	0¢	win	+17.0¢
10-31 12:43	KXBTC15M-26OCT311256-79000	YES	88¢	expired
10-31 10:52	KXBTC15M-26OCT311056-79250	NO	41¢	expired
10-31 09:59	KXBTC15M-26OCT311011-80250	NO	66¢	expired
10-31 06:49	KXBTC15M-26OCT310656-80250	YES	60¢	expired
10-31 01:04	KXBTC15M-26OCT310111-81000	YES	49¢	expired
10-31 00:43	KXBTC15M-26OCT310056-80000	YES	99¢	filled	at price	0¢	loss	-99.0¢
10-31 00:23	KXBTC15M-26OCT310026-81250	NO	56¢	filled	at price	0¢	loss	-56.0¢