state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 30, 2026
This is an archived issue of State of the Lab. The full issue, with every seat and every number exactly as first published, is for paying members.
Latest
Studies
The market was open the whole time: Kalshi sharding and 'market not found'
Kalshi is splitting its exchange into shards. Crypto moved on 24 August and our bot spent nine hours getting 'market not found' for markets that were open and quoting. What changed, why the error points the wrong way, and whether it moved the spread.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 23, 2026 — desk appendix
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 23, 2026 — full board
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 23, 2026
This is an archived issue of State of the Lab. The full issue, with every seat and every number exactly as first published, is for paying members.
Studies
Do weather models beat Kalshi's temperature markets? Two weeks of forward testing say no
Seven strategies, two venues, 504 settled Kalshi markets and 660 on Polymarket. Ensemble divergence loses at every threshold and loses worse the more confident the models are. The one idea that looked real died in forward testing.
Studies
On Kalshi, winning the game is not winning the match
Kalshi's esports GAME ticker settles on the whole match, not the game. Winning map one wins the match 82% of the time, the two contracts trade at parity, and a live game clock is worth far more on one than the other.
state-of-the-lab
The Renegade Rule. A stranger explained the physics and it changed the bot the same day.
We sorted 2,366 of our own trades by distance to strike. Two thirds of them earned almost nothing.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 16, 2026 — desk appendix
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 16, 2026 — full board
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 16, 2026
No. 8 · 16 Aug 2026 · All ponds State of the Lab — week ending Aug 16, 2026 The Heron · 2 min read · b0fbe64e…60bf72 2026-08-16T04:14Z This week the lab ran 105 seats across 6 desks and settled 23,613 trades, nearly all simulated and one desk of them real. Best
Studies
Paper trading vs real money: the same bot, run both ways
One market making bot, run simultaneously on paper and with real dollars on Kalshi. The gap between the two columns is the true cost of simulation, printed weekly.