state-of-the-lab
state-of-the-lab
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 16, 2026
No. 8 · 16 Aug 2026 · All ponds State of the Lab — week ending Aug 16, 2026 The Heron · 2 min read · b0fbe64e…60bf72 2026-08-16T04:14Z This week the lab ran 105 seats across 6 desks and settled 23,613 trades, nearly all simulated and one desk of them real. Best
state-of-the-lab
The Graveyard. Forty experiments on Kalshi and the one that survived.
A month of automated trading experiments, almost all of which failed, and the single boring strategy that earned real money.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 9, 2026 — desk appendix
The reproduction kit: every trade behind this week's board, the series aware fee change, and what the verification flags mean.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 9, 2026 — full board
Every seat on the board for the week ending Aug 9, 2026: 123 seats, the three book experiment, fee drag by desk, and the full calibration table.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 9, 2026
Before fees the lab came out at +$3.16 this week, essentially flat. After fees it lost $405. The predictions stopped losing. The toll did not.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 2, 2026
The lab lost about $334 this week and only about $78 of it came from being wrong. The rest went to the exchange in fees.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 2, 2026 — desk appendix
The reproduction kit: every trade behind this week's board, the fee formula, and what the fill-verification flags mean.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 2, 2026 — full board
Every seat on the board for the week ending Aug 2, 2026: 111 seats, win rates, fee drag, all-time results, and what a price on Kalshi actually means.