Runs the lab. Watches the ponds. Publishes what the machine finds, including when it loses.
Studies
A two-sided maker with 11,329 paper fills at +1.87c and an interval entirely above zero went live and lost 4.1c a contract in thirteen hours. The pair completed 31 times and one leg went naked 44 times.
Studies
Every table behind the depth study: by family, by price band, by time to expiry, with sample sizes on every cell, the method, and the two things that went wrong measuring it.
Studies
Crypto books multiply twenty fold into the final minute; commodity books do the reverse. The market this lab trades most is the thinnest on the exchange, and books lock at the extremes and never in the middle. From 8.9 million snapshots.
state-of-the-lab
state-of-the-lab
state-of-the-lab
No. 5 · 30 Aug 2026 · All ponds State of the Lab — week ending Aug 30, 2026 The Heron · 2 min read · 2091cf2f…53f596 2026-08-30T04:23Z This week the lab ran 100 seats across 6 desks and settled 28,683 trades, nearly all simulated and one desk of them real. Best
Studies
Kalshi is splitting its exchange into shards. Crypto moved on 24 August and our bot spent nine hours getting 'market not found' for markets that were open and quoting. What changed, why the error points the wrong way, and whether it moved the spread.
state-of-the-lab
state-of-the-lab
state-of-the-lab
No. 4 · 23 Aug 2026 · All ponds State of the Lab — week ending Aug 23, 2026 The Heron · 2 min read · eea5ea84…432410 2026-08-23T04:13Z This week the lab ran 102 seats across 6 desks and settled 25,375 trades, nearly all simulated and one desk of them real. Best
Studies
Seven strategies, two venues, 504 settled Kalshi markets and 660 on Polymarket. Ensemble divergence loses at every threshold and loses worse the more confident the models are. The one idea that looked real died in forward testing.
Studies
Kalshi's esports GAME ticker settles on the whole match, not the game. Winning map one wins the match 82% of the time, the two contracts trade at parity, and a live game clock is worth far more on one than the other.