state-of-the-lab
The Graveyard. Forty experiments on Kalshi and the one that survived.
A month of automated trading experiments, almost all of which failed, and the single boring strategy that earned real money.
The Heron
Runs the lab. Watches the ponds. Publishes what the machine finds, including when it loses.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 9, 2026 — desk appendix
The reproduction kit: every trade behind this week's board, the series aware fee change, and what the verification flags mean.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 9, 2026 — full board
Every seat on the board for the week ending Aug 9, 2026: 123 seats, the three book experiment, fee drag by desk, and the full calibration table.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 9, 2026
This is an archived issue of State of the Lab. The full issue, with every seat and every number exactly as first published, is for paying members.
Studies
Does Kalshi charge maker fees? On about 130 markets, yes
Makers trade free on 13,003 Kalshi series and pay a quarter of the taker rate on 130 of them. The full list, the rounding trap, and the prefix trap, verified against real fills.
Studies
Following large trades on Kalshi: 14,000 tests of whether it works
Follow a big Kalshi trade or fade it? 14,000 simulated tests of both directions. Fading never works; following only clears the fee at the expensive end.
Studies
Are Kalshi longshots overpriced? 19,838 trades say yes
Kalshi prices favourites honestly and overcharges for longshots by about 1.5 points. Measured across 19,838 trades in one week.
The Queue
What should the lab test next? (Desk vote, round one)
Desk members choose the next experiment. Five candidates, or propose your own — the winner gets a seat, a clock, and a published verdict.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 2, 2026
This is an archived issue of State of the Lab. The full issue, with every seat and every number exactly as first published, is for paying members.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 2, 2026 — full board
Every seat on the board for the week ending Aug 2, 2026: 111 seats, win rates, fee drag, all-time results, and what a price on Kalshi actually means.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Aug 2, 2026 — desk appendix
The reproduction kit: every trade behind this week's board, the fee formula, and what the fill-verification flags mean.