state-of-the-lab

State of the Lab — Aug 2, 2026 — full board

Every seat on the board for the week ending Aug 2, 2026: 109 seats, win rates, fee drag, all-time results, and what a price on Kalshi actually means.

03 Aug 2026 — 14 min read

What a price actually means on Kalshi — 19,838 settled paper trades.

The lab lost about $401 this week and only about $82 of it came from being wrong. The rest went to the exchange in fees.

The reproduction kit: every trade behind this week's board, the fee formula, and what the fill-verification flags mean.

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