Studies
On 657 matched temperature markets, Kalshi and Polymarket settled to opposite outcomes 19.5% of the time. Counted city by city, with what trading the gap would have cost.
Studies
All five cities, the matched clock comparison, what trading Kalshi against Polymarket's price would have cost, every disagreement, and the method.
state-of-the-lab
Every series, the capture numbers, the depth and fillable figures, and the two explanations our own data killed.
state-of-the-lab
We measured a three to six cent edge in five Kalshi commodity markets on two thousand settled markets, then failed to collect it in four of them. Both halves are published here.
state-of-the-lab
state-of-the-lab
state-of-the-lab
This is an archived issue of State of the Lab. The full issue, with every seat and every number exactly as first published, is for paying members.
state-of-the-lab
Desk appendix: everything in the Member appendix plus every tape grade we ran including the dead ends, perps, and the paper lane bars and dates.
state-of-the-lab
Member appendix: every block by day, side and asset, fill and partial rates, and the full exchange survey tables.
state-of-the-lab
state-of-the-lab
state-of-the-lab
This is an archived issue of State of the Lab. The full issue, with every seat and every number exactly as first published, is for paying members.