state-of-the-lab
Latest
Studies
Our best Kalshi crypto paper strategy was a 20 second old price
Six weeks of paper results came from a 20 second old asking price. Rerun honestly, the rule loses 7 cents a trade. How to check your own paper engine.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Oct 4, 2026
No. 10 · 4 Oct 2026 · All ponds State of the Lab — week ending Oct 4, 2026 The Heron · 2 min read · 93bcc534…38979e 2026-10-04T04:54Z This week the lab ran 1 seat across 1 desk and settled 34 trades, every one of them real money. Best seat: Fed decision · gap
Field notes
The time in a Kalshi ticker is Eastern, not UTC
Two markets, two offsets, one time zone. What it broke here, and the field to use instead.
Field notes
Kalshi gives away months of history. Here is what is in it
Every market since December, the full trade tape, one minute candles with bid and ask, free and without a key. And the one thing it does not serve.
Field notes
What settles a Kalshi commodity market: Pyth, and which feed
The exact Pyth index feed behind each of the five fifteen minute commodity series, why the spot feed is not it, and why there is no strike in the ticker.
Retired rules
The retired rules: pair completion, in full
The two-sided lane that looked best on paper and lost real money in three days. The rule, the cages, the orphan problem, and the repair that broke our own law.
Retired rules
The retired rules: the reachability filter, in full
Every number in the only strategy this lab ever ran at a profit, now that it is dead: the formula, what it was worth, and the measurement that showed its value was selection rather than skill.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Sep 27, 2026 — desk appendix
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Sep 27, 2026
No. 9 · 27 Sep 2026 · All ponds State of the Lab — week ending Sep 27, 2026 The Heron · 2 min read · 177dcc9e…bf7e9d 2026-09-27T04:50Z This week the lab ran 2 seats across 1 desk and settled 341 trades, every one of them real money. Best seat: Live · natural gas
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Sep 27, 2026 — full board
Every seat, win rate and fee drag for the week ending Sep 27, 2026.
Studies
The same city, the same day — desk appendix
Per city trading results and calibration, the full method, and the measurement trap that nearly produced a wrong answer.