Studies
We tracked $4 million of Kalshi whale trades. The big money lost
1,855 Kalshi trades of $1,000 or more lost 4.9%. Copying them faster didn't help, because there was no move to catch. Plus our own bug.
Latest
Prompts
Kalshi perps: build a liquidation and funding dashboard with one prompt
See your liquidation price, funding cost and break-even move before you click Up or Down. Free public data, no API key.
Studies
850 Kalshi bots, graded: members appendix
All 22 strategies that made money in every third, the luck check, the 4 survivors now, and every real-money strategy.
Studies
99¢ Kalshi contracts: members appendix
Every distance bucket, every coin, the time left that matters, and the two rules frozen for the forward test.
Studies
Is a 99¢ Kalshi contract free money? We checked 167,648 of them
Bought blind, near-certain Kalshi contracts lose about a cent each. Bought carefully, they might not. The numbers, and the forward test that decides.
Course
Kalshi bot course, lesson 2: test a rule on free history
Months of Kalshi's free price history, a rule tested at prices you could really have traded, and the prompt that builds the tester.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Oct 11, 2026 — full board
Every paper strategy with its all-time record, the crypto taker rules one by one, and the night vs day test.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Oct 11, 2026
No real money this week. Two viewer comments changed what the lab tests: every real fill is now published, and a night vs day test began.
Prompts
Test Kalshi's favourite strategy yourself: a free AI prompt
One prompt for Claude or ChatGPT that builds an honest tester for the favourite rule on Kalshi's free data. Free with a Pondletter account.
Prompts
Kalshi longshot strategy: a prompt that tests both sides honestly
Long shot, favourite, or a resting bid proven by the trade tape: a members prompt that compares all three on the same markets.
Course
Kalshi bot course, lesson 1: read a market correctly
Prices, the book, fees by series, close times and settlement rules, and the prompt that builds a market reader.
state-of-the-lab