Picking winners after the fact: members appendix
All nine coins, the exact rule and the stricter recheck.
Latest
Kalshi bot course, lesson 4: honest fills, or how a paper result lies to you
Touched is not filled. A fill report for your paper bot or Ping that shows the size of the touch-counting lie in cents per contract, with the prompt that builds it.
We ran the same Kalshi rule on paper and with real money. The misses were the winners
69 real orders against their paper twins: about half the paper number never arrived, and the gap was not the price.
Paper vs real money: members appendix
All 53 decisions, trade by trade.
The four best coins made 5.9 cents in week one. Here is what a fresh test showed
We picked the best 4 of 9 coins, then tested them on trades nobody had seen.
The members' room
Where members and the lab talk: Ping, your rules, the live record. Comments are the room.
Kalshi bot course, lesson 3: turn the test into a paper bot that records every decision
A paper bot that rests orders the way a real one would, counts a fill only when a trade prints through, and writes down every decision, including the ones not to trade. With the prompt that builds it.
Ping is ready: the lab's bot, on your computer
The paper-trading bot the lab runs is now something you can run yourself. Demo for everyone, install for members, live version next.
State of the Lab — Oct 25, 2026 — desk appendix
State of the Lab — Oct 25, 2026 — full board
State of the Lab — Oct 25, 2026
No. 13 · 25 Oct 2026 · All ponds State of the Lab — week ending Oct 25, 2026 The Heron · 2 min read · da9c731a…7012e6 2026-10-25T04:51Z This week the lab ran 21 seats across 3 desks and settled 35,558 trades, nearly all simulated, 44 of them real money. Best seat:
One quick question from the lab
Hit reply: three quick questions for our first members.
Studies
Kalshi's 7% APY on perps: the real rule, the math, and the trap we fell into
Kalshi now pays up to 7% a year on perpetual futures positions. The rule is one line of math most people will get wrong. Here it is, with the real money position we opened to test it.
Course
Kalshi bot course, advanced lesson 1: what the last minute is really worth
The 15 minute Bitcoin markets settle on an average, not a price. The arithmetic on 635 real settlements, the prompt that builds a settlement watcher, and our live record so far.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Oct 18, 2026 — full board
The live bot fill by fill with its exact rule, every paper strategy's all-time record, and the night vs day verdict in full.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Oct 18, 2026
Real money is back on, and speed turned out to be the problem. Plus two studies, and the night vs day test's verdict.
Studies
Our live Kalshi bot reacts in under a tenth of a second. It still missed
We replayed 5,742 moments in 960 Kalshi Bitcoin markets: how often offers are still there, and why slow bots get the losing trades.
Studies
Kalshi whale trades: members appendix
Every table behind the whale study: by market, by size, speed, the Bitcoin lead-lag test, and the bug.
Studies
Kalshi bot speed: members appendix
The live last-minute rule exactly as it runs: settings, engine timings, stops, verdict bar and every real fill.
Studies
We tracked $4 million of Kalshi whale trades. The big money lost
1,855 Kalshi trades of $1,000 or more lost 4.9%. Copying them faster didn't help, because there was no move to catch. Plus our own bug.
Prompts
Kalshi perps: build a liquidation and funding dashboard with one prompt
See your liquidation price, funding cost and break-even move before you click Up or Down. Free public data, no API key.
Studies
850 Kalshi bots, graded: members appendix
All 22 strategies that made money in every third, the luck check, the 4 survivors now, and every real-money strategy.
Studies
99¢ Kalshi contracts: members appendix
Every distance bucket, every coin, the time left that matters, and the two rules frozen for the forward test.
Studies
Is a 99¢ Kalshi contract free money? We checked 167,648 of them
Bought blind, near-certain Kalshi contracts lose about a cent each. Bought carefully, they might not. The numbers, and the forward test that decides.