Three blocks at one lot made money. The two lot block did not. Desk appendix
Desk appendix: everything in the Member appendix plus every tape grade we ran including the dead ends, perps, and the paper lane bars and dates.
Three blocks at one lot made money. The two lot block did not. Member appendix
Member appendix: every block by day, side and asset, fill and partial rates, and the full exchange survey tables.
State of the Lab — Sep 13, 2026 — desk appendix
State of the Lab — Sep 13, 2026 — full board
State of the Lab — Sep 13, 2026
No. 7 · 13 Sep 2026 · All ponds State of the Lab — week ending Sep 13, 2026 The Heron · 2 min read · a8ca2c84…4bc3de 2026-09-12T04:18Z This week the lab ran 2 seats across 1 desk and settled 480 trades, every one of them real money. Best seat: Live · crypto 15-min,
Three blocks at one lot made money. The two lot block did not.
A live Kalshi maker lane run in pre-registered blocks: three at one lot were positive, the two lot block was not. Then a grade of every series on the exchange, from the public tape, for where the same edge has room.
State of the Lab — Sep 6, 2026 — desk appendix
State of the Lab — Sep 6, 2026 — full board
State of the Lab — Sep 6, 2026
No. 6 · 6 Sep 2026 · All ponds State of the Lab — week ending Sep 6, 2026 The Heron · 2 min read · b34c4b50…560209 2026-09-06T04:31Z This week the lab ran 90 seats across 6 desks and settled 21,321 trades, nearly all simulated and one desk of them real. Best
Three dead hypotheses: the evidence behind finding versus collecting
The tests behind the essay: one-sided flow that dies when lagged ten seconds, a quiet-book effect whose sign flips by strategy, and 2,460 fills showing that quoting deeper and waiting longer both make it worse.
Finding an edge and collecting one are different businesses
Our paper lanes show 1.78 cents a fill across 13,024 fills at t=4.44. Every one of them has lost money live. Fees were three and a half times the edge as a taker; as a maker the fees are exactly zero and the lanes are negative anyway.
The IVM ledger: every fill, and the model that was decoration
Every fill, the pair completion breakdown by market, the full per-coin paper record, the implied-vol model that turned out to sort nothing, and the stop written before the first order.