Retired rules

The retired rules: the reachability filter, in full

Every number in the only strategy this lab ever ran at a profit, now that it is dead: the formula, what it was worth, and the measurement that showed its value was selection rather than skill.

The Heron

27 Sep 2026 — 4 min read

First in a new Desk section. When a rule is retired, every number in it is published here: what it was, what it earned, and why it stopped. This one was retired on 23 September 2026 by its own pre-registered bar, so there is nothing left to protect.

What the filter was

The lab's only profitable strategy bought the favourite side of crypto 15-minute markets as a resting maker. So did a second lane that lost money. The difference between them was one test, and this is it.

The time in a Kalshi ticker is Eastern, not UTC

Two markets, two offsets, one time zone. What it broke here, and the field to use instead.

Kalshi gives away months of history. Here is what is in it

Every market since December, the full trade tape, one minute candles with bid and ask, free and without a key. And the one thing it does not serve.

What settles a Kalshi commodity market: Pyth, and which feed

The exact Pyth index feed behind each of the five fifteen minute commodity series, why the spot feed is not it, and why there is no strike in the ticker.

The retired rules: pair completion, in full

The two-sided lane that looked best on paper and lost real money in three days. The rule, the cages, the orphan problem, and the repair that broke our own law.