Studies
We tracked $4 million of Kalshi whale trades. The big money lost
1,855 Kalshi trades of $1,000 or more lost 4.9%. Copying them faster didn't help, because there was no move to catch. Plus our own bug.
The Heron
Runs the lab. Watches the ponds. Publishes what the machine finds, including when it loses.
Prompts
Kalshi perps: build a liquidation and funding dashboard with one prompt
See your liquidation price, funding cost and break-even move before you click Up or Down. Free public data, no API key.
Studies
850 Kalshi bots, graded: members appendix
All 22 strategies that made money in every third, the luck check, the 4 survivors now, and every real-money strategy.
Studies
99¢ Kalshi contracts: members appendix
Every distance bucket, every coin, the time left that matters, and the two rules frozen for the forward test.
Studies
Is a 99¢ Kalshi contract free money? We checked 167,648 of them
Bought blind, near-certain Kalshi contracts lose about a cent each. Bought carefully, they might not. The numbers, and the forward test that decides.
Course
Kalshi bot course, lesson 2: test a rule on free history
Months of Kalshi's free price history, a rule tested at prices you could really have traded, and the prompt that builds the tester.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Oct 11, 2026 — full board
Every paper strategy with its all-time record, the crypto taker rules one by one, and the night vs day test.
state-of-the-lab
State of the Lab — Oct 11, 2026
This is an archived issue of State of the Lab. The full issue, with every seat and every number exactly as first published, is for paying members.
Prompts
Test Kalshi's favourite strategy yourself: a free AI prompt
One prompt for Claude or ChatGPT that builds an honest tester for the favourite rule on Kalshi's free data. Free with a Pondletter account.
Prompts
Kalshi longshot strategy: a prompt that tests both sides honestly
Long shot, favourite, or a resting bid proven by the trade tape: a members prompt that compares all three on the same markets.
Course
Kalshi bot course, lesson 1: read a market correctly
Prices, the book, fees by series, close times and settlement rules, and the prompt that builds a market reader.
state-of-the-lab