Studies
850 Kalshi bots, graded: members appendix
All 22 strategies that made money in every third, the luck check, the 4 survivors now, and every real-money strategy.
Studies
One question, answered with data. Each study takes a claim about Kalshi and tests it against the lab's trade record.
Studies
99¢ Kalshi contracts: members appendix
Every distance bucket, every coin, the time left that matters, and the two rules frozen for the forward test.
Studies
Is a 99¢ Kalshi contract free money? We checked 167,648 of them
Bought blind, near-certain Kalshi contracts lose about a cent each. Bought carefully, they might not. The numbers, and the forward test that decides.
Prompts
Test Kalshi's favourite strategy yourself: a free AI prompt
One prompt for Claude or ChatGPT that builds an honest tester for the favourite rule on Kalshi's free data. Free with a Pondletter account.
Prompts
Kalshi longshot strategy: a prompt that tests both sides honestly
Long shot, favourite, or a resting bid proven by the trade tape: a members prompt that compares all three on the same markets.
Studies
Our best Kalshi crypto paper strategy was a 20 second old price
Six weeks of paper results came from a 20 second old asking price. Rerun honestly, the rule loses 7 cents a trade. How to check your own paper engine.
Retired rules
The retired rules: pair completion, in full
The two-sided lane that looked best on paper and lost real money in three days. The rule, the cages, the orphan problem, and the repair that broke our own law.
Retired rules
The retired rules: the reachability filter, in full
Every number in the only strategy this lab ever ran at a profit, now that it is dead: the formula, what it was worth, and the measurement that showed its value was selection rather than skill.
Studies
The same city, the same day — desk appendix
Per city trading results and calibration, the full method, and the measurement trap that nearly produced a wrong answer.
Studies
The same city, the same day, and one time in five the two venues disagree
On 657 matched temperature markets, Kalshi and Polymarket settled to opposite outcomes 19.5% of the time. Counted city by city, with what trading the gap would have cost.
Studies
The same city, the same day — member appendix
All five cities, the matched clock comparison, what trading Kalshi against Polymarket's price would have cost, every disagreement, and the method.
Studies
Three blocks at one lot made money. The two lot block did not.
A live Kalshi maker lane run in pre-registered blocks: three at one lot were positive, the two lot block was not. Then a grade of every series on the exchange, from the public tape, for where the same edge has room.