Studies
Following large trades on Kalshi: 14,000 tests of whether it works
Follow a big Kalshi trade or fade it? 14,000 simulated tests of both directions. Fading never works; following only clears the fee at the expensive end.
One question, answered with data. Each study takes a claim about Kalshi and tests it against the lab's trade record.
Studies
Follow a big Kalshi trade or fade it? 14,000 simulated tests of both directions. Fading never works; following only clears the fee at the expensive end.
Studies
Kalshi prices favourites honestly and overcharges for longshots by about 1.5 points. Measured across 19,838 trades in one week.